Predicted Ratings for TUF Special

[Luke]

On Monday, Dana White said on MMAWeekly that they expect the live special in April to do a 6.0...A 6.0!! That seems incredibly unreasonable to me seeing as how the show's peak rating up to this point is a 2.0. They expect a 200% increase for the final episode? Ken Shamrock is a big name for UFC, but, he's not popular enough to spike a rating like that. If the live special does a 2.5, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

If there were some sort of precedent for ratings ever spiking to that degree, I might say it could happen. But, I don't think any tv show has ever experienced that kind of spike for a single episode, especially on cable t.v. where anything over 1.0 is considered a huge success. WWE Raw is the only cable program I can think of that has ever done ratings over a 6.0 on even a semi-consistent basis, and that was during a period where wrestling was very hot, hotter than UFC is right now.

[guyincognito]

On Monday, Dana White said on MMAWeekly that they expect the live special in April to do a 6.0...A 6.0!! That seems incredibly unreasonable to me seeing as how the show's peak rating up to this point is a 2.0. They expect a 4% increase for the final episode?
You should take math again. That's a 200% increase. :p

[Luke]

You should take math again. That's a 200% increase. :p

I'm a political science major. I'll take some courses over the summer to see what I can do. I'm still working on becoming a more complete student. :p

[themunchies]

I think it might get a 3.0 at best. A 6.0 is out of the question.

[niniendowarrior]

6.0 is really a ridiculous number... but then again knowing Dana... he said Chris Sanford was the guy coming back... soooo... :-D :-D :-D

Anyway, I agree with Munchies... 3.0 probably at best. Nothing more than 3.

[Cbear]

I'd give it a shot at doing a 3-3.5 but if Dana is right that the network is going to hype it to the moon it theoretically could be higher. They don't usually hype things that hard, so its hard to say what effect it could have. I think a 3.0 based only on current audience building to the final show would be realistic.

[PREDATOR]

DOnt forget that its going to be a live show (audience love live shows) and that its going to be on a saturday night (9pm i believe). Add shamrock, eliminated fighters, and spike tv hyping it up and you got at least a 3.5 in my opinion.

IM going to predict a 5.0 rating. :)

[Cbear]

DOnt forget that its going to be a live show (audience love live shows) and that its going to be on a saturday night (9pm i believe). Add shamrock, eliminated fighters, and spike tv hyping it up and you got at least a 3.5 in my opinion.

IM going to predict a 5.0 rating. :)
Saturday night prime time is not exactly the best time to catch the male 18-34 demographic at home. Go out on a date or watch Dana-vision? Remember that we are talking casual fans, not hard core mma fans who will drive that rating through the roof or not. Saturday is a bad day in my op.

[maestro]

Saturday is the worst day of the week for ratings on any network. This timeslot will do nothing but severely deter the UFC.

[PREDATOR]

Dana-vision? lol

The ufc has there live events on saturday nights, and almost all boxing payper views are on saturday nights. If they were going to show the regular one hour TUF show on saturday night i would agree with you guys, but this is the finale where there are only going to be fights being shown.

I think we can agree that its better having the finale on saturday around 9, then having it on 11 pm monday.

[Cbear]

Dana-vision? lol

The ufc has there live events on saturday nights, and almost all boxing payper views are on saturday nights. If they were going to show the regular one hour TUF show on saturday night i would agree with you guys, but this is the finale where there are only going to be fights being shown.

I think we can agree that its better having the finale on saturday around 9, then having it on 11 pm monday.
Boxing has skewed a much older average audience. The last breakdown I saw had the average age in the 40-55 year old range. Much older than UFC is aiming for. Boxing is in a quandry on how to regain the lost youth audience.

UFC does Saturday night ppvs, but keep in mind that those audiences are made up primarily of hard core fans who will also turn out for the tv show. The vaunted casual fan base that Dana is really looking for doesn't turn out for UFC ppvs unless Shamrock is on top of the card, and to a lesser extent--Tito and Randy. Keep in mind that the big ppv ratings drawn by Ken would translate to a weak free tv rating. A 1.6 ppv is good but the same for free tv is not. Again, I would consider a 3.0 Saturday night rating to be a huge success but Dana has tossed out this huge 6.0 number so anything less will be seen as a disappointment.

On another note, the WWE is done on the Spike network and only has USA to negotiate with. They have been wanting to move back to USA but are seeking a huge raise in rights fees. Spike dropping them takes away their advantage as no other big network is interested so Vince is now negotiating from a point of weakness. What does this mean for UFC and a season 2? Will Spike go after UFC aggressively to become their wrestling replacement or will they say "screw it" and get away from testosterone tv? Going to get very interesting.